📊 Recent Form
West Brom
QPR
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts West Brom at 45%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 27% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 9 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
West Brom and QPR played out a 1-1 draw on Saturday, a result that left both sides with work to do. The match turned on an unfortunate moment early in the second half when Chris Mepham put through his own goal in the 38th minute, handing West Brom the lead. That advantage lasted just three minutes. Callum Styles extended West Brom's cushion with a well-taken finish in the 41st minute, assisted by Felix Horn Myhre, to make it 2-0. But QPR clawed their way back and eventually forced a share of the spoils.
Our pre-match model leaned toward a West Brom win at 45%, with a draw sitting at 27% — a lean, not a conviction. The Poisson analysis suggested both teams were evenly matched on expected goals, so a narrow home victory made sense on paper. What we got was something different: neither the result direction nor the exact scoreline came off. The model had weighted a higher goal tally and a West Brom win, but the actual outcome proved more competitive. QPR's comeback showed they weren't outclassed, even if the early own goal and Styles' follow-up put them under real pressure.
There's not much to dwell on here beyond the basics: our model didn't call this one correctly, and that's part of the job. A draw fell inside the plausible range, just not the most likely outcome we'd flagged. Both teams have shown they can fight back or hang on when it matters, which makes them trickier to read next time round.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom Win | 11/10 2.12 | 44% | 45% | +1% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.34 | 28% | 27% | -1% |
| QPR Win | 5/2 3.40 | 28% | 28% | ±0% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 West Brom in title race (P1)
- ⬆️ QPR in promotion hunt (P4)
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Championship history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: West Brom xG 1.39 | QPR xG 1.36
Projected: 42% / 28% / 30%
H2H: 5W-2D-1L
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
5W-2D-1L for West Brom in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.