West Brom ground out a 1-0 win over Watford at The Hawthorns, with J. Morgan breaking the deadlock in the 36th minute after a assist from Harry Whitell. It wasn't the goal-heavy affair the pre-match model expected, but the Baggies got the job done and that's what matters when both sides come in relatively flat.

Our model predicted a 2-1 scoreline, giving West Brom a 44% chance of victory—a lean toward a home win rather than a strong conviction. The result direction was right, but the actual match played out tighter than anticipated. Pre-kickoff, the model had leaned toward a narrow home win because West Brom's home advantage and superior head-to-head record tipped the scales in their favour, despite both teams sitting mid-table with limited motivation. Watford's poor away form and low scoring average also suggested they'd struggle. The prediction factored in a higher draw probability than a straight Poisson model would've, given the uninspiring circumstances, but still settled on a West Brom victory as most likely. What we didn't call was quite how little Watford would offer in attack—the match stayed goalless until Morgan's strike, then stayed that way to the end.

It's a reminder that low-motivation fixtures don't always produce fireworks. West Brom took their chance and managed the game from there, and that's a professional performance rather than a brilliant one. Our model got the winner right but underestimated how cagey this would be. Sometimes the leanest scorelines arrive in the flattest games.