West Ham's 3-0 demolition of Leeds was a comprehensive performance that bore little resemblance to our pre-match forecast of a 2-2 draw. The Hammers broke through in the 67th minute when T. Castellanos finished after J. Bowen's assist, then doubled their advantage twelve minutes later as Bowen himself found the net through M. Fernandes's setup. C. Wilson's 90+4' goal capped a dominant second-half display that left Leeds without a single goal despite our model flagging both-teams-to-score as a likely outcome. The narrative was straightforward: West Ham's relegation-zone desperation translated into clinical finishing, while Leeds, positioned comfortably mid-table, offered minimal resistance.

Our prediction missed the mark on multiple fronts. We weighted the draw probability at 30 percent, leaning toward 2-2 based partly on Premier League historical patterns, while underestimating West Ham's capacity to convert home advantage into a decisive victory. The data we flagged—West Ham's stronger home form, the fixture's historical pattern of high-scoring outcomes, and the motivation gap between the two sides—pointed toward a West Ham win, yet our model failed to fully account for Leeds's apparent passivity. The absence of goals from Leeds was particularly notable given the H2H averaging 3.4 goals per game and our emphasis on both-teams-to-score likelihood. What transpired instead was a one-sided affair where West Ham's clinical finishing and territorial control went unchallenged, a outcome our probabilistic framework simply underweighted despite the underlying contextual clues suggesting a more comfortable home victory than the 41 percent win probability we'd assigned.