📊 Recent Form
Zulte Waregem
Charleroi
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 41%. Zulte Waregem edge it at 40% against 28% for the draw and 32% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–2 points to Charleroi while the probabilities favour Zulte Waregem. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have Zulte Waregem at 40% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 37% — a gap in our favour of 3 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 54/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zulte Waregem Win | 6/4 2.55 | 37% | 40% | +3% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.40 | 28% | 28% | ±0% |
| Charleroi Win | 13/8 2.60 | 35% | 32% | -3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Zulte Waregem strong at home (WWWDWW), low concede rate; Charleroi solid away (WWDL) with good attack
H2H: High-scoring fixture averaging 3 goals/game over last 8 meetings, relatively neutral dominance
Stakes: Both teams mid-table (P4/P5), normal motivation, no relegation or title pressure skewing the result
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 H2H average 3 goals/game with neutral dominance; Zulte Waregem won the most recent home meeting 1-0 in March 2026 but Charleroi leads overall with 4 wins to 2.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.