📊 Recent Form
Abha
Al-Ittihad FC
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Al-Ittihad FC at 53%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 19% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Al-Ittihad FC at 53% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 57% — a gap against us of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abha Win Value | 7/2 4.60 | 20% | 28% | +8% |
| Draw | 3/1 4.10 | 23% | 19% | -4% |
| Al-Ittihad FC Win | 3/5 1.60 | 57% | 53% | -4% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Abha in relegation danger (P18/18)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Abha xG 0.7 | Al-Ittihad FC xG 2.33
Projected: 15% / 16% / 69%
H2H: 2W-0D-6L
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
2W-0D-6L for Abha in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
