📊 Recent Form
Al Shabab
Al-Ahli Jeddah
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 45%. Al-Ahli Jeddah edge it at 44% against 27% for the draw and 29% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 8 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Shabab Win | 2/1 3.12 | 30% | 29% | -1% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.80 | 25% | 27% | +2% |
| Al-Ahli Jeddah Win | 1/1 2.03 | 45% | 44% | -1% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Al Shabab mid-table (P12) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Al Shabab xG 1.05 | Al-Ahli Jeddah xG 2.16
Projected: 16% / 29% / 55%
H2H: 2W-3D-3L
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
2W-3D-3L for Al Shabab in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
