📊 Recent Form
Alaves
Osasuna
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 44%. Alaves edge it at 43% against 29% for the draw and 28% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 6 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 53/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Alaves turned on the style at home to dispatch Osasuna 5-2 in a result that punished defensive lapses and left our pre-match prediction well short of the mark. Boyé was the star of the show, grabbing a hat-trick with finishes in the 27th, 51st, and 68th minutes — the first assisted by Mariano Díaz, the second by Carles Aleñá, and the third by Angel Pérez Hidalgo. Díaz himself got in on the act with a second-minute goal from an Antonio Sivera assist, before Osasuna pulled one back through Ante Budimir in the 46th. Budimir added a penalty just after the hour, but Alaves had the final say when Lumbreras scored in the 90th to seal a comprehensive win.
Our model leaned toward an Alaves victory at 43% probability, with a predicted scoreline of 2-1. The result direction was right, but the execution couldn't have looked more different — we were banking on a tight, low-scoring affair backed up by Alaves' strong defensive record at home and Osasuna's frugal away form. The head-to-head history did flag the potential for higher scoring, and that bit us here. Instead of the controlled performance the forecast implied, Alaves came out swinging early, went in 2-0 up after 36 minutes, and never looked back despite Osasuna fighting back twice. It's a clean miss on the scoreline, even if we nailed the winner.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves Win | 5/4 2.29 | 42% | 43% | +1% |
| Draw | 2/1 3.12 | 31% | 29% | -2% |
| Osasuna Win | 5/2 3.52 | 27% | 28% | +1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🎯 Alaves chasing top-4 (P5)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Alaves strong at home (WWWD), averaging 1.52 goals scored and just 0.37 conceded — defensively excellent but H2H overrides suggest higher scoring. Osasuna averaging 0.99 goals scored away with solid recent away wins.
H2H: 3 goals/game average across last 8 meetings; last five include 2-2, 3-0, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2 — consistently competitive and multi-goal.
Stakes: Alaves chasing top-4 provides clear motivational boost; Osasuna in P6 with less urgency.
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 meetings average 3 goals per game with results split neutrally; recent fixtures heavily feature both teams scoring including two 2-2 draws and a 3-0. High-scoring H2H trend clearly supports goals in this matchup.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
