📊 Recent Form
Alaves
Valencia
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Alaves at 59%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 22% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Alaves at 59% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 55% — a gap in our favour of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Valencia pulled off a come-from-behind win at Aláves, sneaking a 1-0 victory through Luis Rioja in the 78th minute after Javi Guerra picked out the assist. It wasn't the scoreline our model had in mind — we'd backed Aláves to win 2-0, and we got that one badly wrong.
Before kickoff, the underlying metrics favored Aláves convincingly. Their expected goals sat well clear of Valencia's, and the form read strongly in their direction. Our model assigned Aláves a 59% win probability, with Valencia's chances pegged at just 19%. The most likely outcome at that point was a 2-0 home win. The match didn't play out that way. Valencia created little on paper but found the breakthrough late, and Aláves couldn't find an equalizer. Sometimes the side with the better metrics doesn't get the job done, and this was one of those nights.
We got the direction of the result wrong, and the exact scoreline alongside it. That's the nature of football — low-probability events happen, and a 19% lean toward Valencia proved more than theoretical. The model weighted Aláves's attacking threat and recent form heavily enough to make Valencia the underdog here, but underdog doesn't mean impossible. This was a reminder that even when the numbers stack one way, the ball's got its own ideas.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves Win | 8/11 1.73 | 55% | 59% | +4% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.58 | 27% | 22% | -5% |
| Valencia Win | 9/2 5.50 | 18% | 19% | +1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🎯 Alaves chasing top-4 (P4)
- 🆘 Valencia in relegation danger (P20/20)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Alaves xG 2.44 | Valencia xG 0.66
Projected: 66% / 20% / 14%
H2H: 4W-2D-2L
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
4W-2D-2L for Alaves in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.