📊 Recent Form
Arouca
Maritimo
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 39%. Arouca edge it at 38% against 28% for the draw and 34% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–2 points to Maritimo while the probabilities favour Arouca. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have Arouca at 38% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 42% — a gap against us of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 60/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Arouca turned the script on Maritimo with a second-half performance that flipped a game that had looked headed Maritimo's way. After Martín Tejón put the visitors ahead in the 27th minute, Arouca drew level just before the break when van Ee finished off an Alfonso Trezza assist in the 44th. The turning point came early in the second half: Iván Barbero, set up by Pablo Gozálbez, gave Arouca the lead at 55', and they held on to claim a 2-1 win that moves them closer to the pack ahead.
Our model had picked a 1-2 scoreline in favour of Maritimo, assigning a 34% probability to a Maritimo win — the most likely single outcome from our view, but hardly a confident call. The reality went the opposite way. What shifted things was Arouca's response after going behind; the model had flagged mixed recent form for the home side, whereas Maritimo's shape looked more stable coming in. That lean made sense on the pre-match data, but it didn't account for Arouca finding their rhythm after the first half. Maritimo's solid approach didn't hold up when it mattered most, and Arouca's clinical finish — two well-taken goals in quick succession — proved the difference.
It's a reminder that a one-goal margin sits within the noise of football's variance, and tightly balanced fixtures like this one can easily tip either way. The model didn't see this outcome as the most likely, but it was absolutely in the realm of the plausible.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca Win | 6/5 2.22 | 42% | 38% | -4% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.20 | 29% | 28% | -1% |
| Maritimo Win Value | 9/4 3.30 | 29% | 34% | +5% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Arouca inconsistent overall (LWWWLDDL), recent 0-2 loss; Maritimo solid (DWWDDWLWL) with recent away win
H2H: Neutral dominance, 4-2-2 in Arouca's favour but 2.9 avg goals/game — goals expected
Stakes: Both teams mid-table (P4 and P6), motivation normal — slight edge to Maritimo pushing for top positions
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H is relatively balanced but averages nearly 3 goals per game — recent meetings include a 0-3, a 2-2, and a 1-0, suggesting variable but generally open encounters. Maritimo have shown they can win here.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.