Arsenal put on a dominant display at home to sweep aside Lille with a 3-0 victory in this Champions League knockout tie. The designated home side controlled the match from start to finish, breaking through in the second half with three goals in quick succession. Jurriën Timber got the ball rolling in the 64th minute with an assist from Noni Madueke, before Eberechi Eze doubled the lead three minutes later courtesy of a Bukayo Saka pass. Saka then got in on the act himself in the 71st minute, finishing off a move set up by Kai Havertz to seal a commanding win.

Our model had predicted a 2-0 scoreline, which meant we called the result direction correctly but underestimated Arsenal's attacking potency on the night. The 64% win probability for Arsenal reflected the side's clear structural superiority going in — form pointed to a team in strong shape at home, while Lille arrived with mixed recent results. The match unfolded pretty much in line with those pre-kickoff expectations: Arsenal was the better side and converted their chances when it mattered, though they found the back of the net one more time than we'd banked on. Lille rarely threatened and couldn't get a foothold in the contest, meaning the clean sheet held firm. It's a respectable call that nailed the outcome, even if the exact scoreline slipped by us.