📊 Recent Form
AS Roma
Cagliari
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes AS Roma a 62% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have AS Roma at 62% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 74% — a gap against us of 12 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma Win | 2/7 1.30 | 74% | 62% | -12% |
| Draw | 9/2 5.49 | 18% | 22% | +4% |
| Cagliari Win Value | 10/1 11.00 | 8% | 16% | +8% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🎯 AS Roma chasing top-4 (P3)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: AS Roma xG 2.44 | Cagliari xG 0.67
Projected: 71% / 21% / 8%
H2H: 6W-1D-1L
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
6W-1D-1L for AS Roma in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
