Athletic Club and Elche played out a 1-1 draw at San Mamés, a result that came in well below the goal-scoring expectations our model had set before kickoff. Elche struck first from the penalty spot in the 50th minute through Facundo Buonanotte, but Athletic Club levelled through Iñaki Williams in the 79th, with Alex Berenguer providing the assist. The match stayed tight after that, and neither side found a winner.

Our prediction of a 2-1 Athletic Club victory came unstuck, though a draw wasn't a wild miss — the model assigned it a 24% probability before kickoff, so it was among the plausible outcomes we'd flagged. Where the forecast leaned heavier was on goals. The pre-match shape suggested both teams would attack: Athletic Club with home advantage and attacking intent, Elche needing to be bold given their relegation position and defensive fragility. The model had expected that desperation to open space on the counter. Instead, the match proved more cautious than anticipated, with neither side able to convert that pressure into multiple goals.

Athletic Club's draw leaves them still chasing a win at home, while Elche picked up a valuable point on the road despite going behind. For our model, it's a clean miss on both the result direction and the scoreline — one of those games where the underlying logic made sense on paper but the football didn't cooperate.