Atletico-MG got the job done at home, but it wasn't quite as comfortable as expected. They went ahead through Borbas in the 25th minute—Reinier with the assist—and doubled their lead when Reinier himself found the back of the net in the 63rd. That should've been game over, but Vitoria pulled one back through Erick in the 87th to make it 2-1 and set up a nervy finish. In the end, Atletico-MG held on for the win.

Our model had called a 2-0, leaning toward Atletico-MG with a 53% win probability—the most likely outcome in a match between two mid-table sides with limited motivation to chase the game. The direction was right, but the exact scoreline missed. The call was always a lean rather than a slam dunk; the model had weighted clean sheet odds and a lower-scoring pattern based on Vitoria's away form and fatigue from a compressed fixture schedule. What actually happened was pretty close to that shape—Atletico-MG controlled most of it and got two goals in—but Vitoria managed to nick one late on, tightening what looked like a straightforward home victory. It's the kind of minor variance that sits comfortably within the noise of match prediction, but it's worth noting: even solid reads can get the fine detail wrong.