📊 Recent Form
Austin
San Jose Earthquakes
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 42%. Austin edge it at 41% against 27% for the draw and 32% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 5 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 63/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Austin and San Jose Earthquakes played out a 1-1 draw in a match that didn't deliver the scoreline our model had pencilled in beforehand. Beau Leroux gave the visitors an early lead in the eighth minute, assisted by N. Tsakiris, but Austin equalised deep into stoppage time when Guilherme Biro found the net in the 90+6th minute to rescue a point at home.
Before kickoff, the model leant toward a 2-1 Austin win and gave the draw just a 27% chance, so this result falls well outside our primary lean. The early San Jose goal did align with pre-match concerns about Austin's defending at home, though the visitors' away form had looked fragile coming in. What didn't follow script was the lack of additional goals—we'd flagged signs pointing toward a more open, goal-heavy affair, but instead the match tightened up after that opening strike. Austin's desperation for a win at home, given the circumstances heading into the fixture, did ultimately show in that late leveller, though it came too late to give them the three points the model had favoured.
A draw leaves both teams with something, but it's a result that stings Austin more than it helps them, while San Jose will feel they let a lead slip late on. Our model got the direction wrong on this one—sometimes a tight match just stays tight.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 5 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Win | 6/5 2.20 | 42% | 41% | -1% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.75 | 25% | 27% | +2% |
| San Jose Earthquakes Win | 2/1 2.95 | 33% | 32% | -1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Austin in relegation danger (P14/15)
- 🇪🇺 San Jose Earthquakes in European race (P4)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Austin home form solid (DLWW), averaging 1.36 scored; San Jose away form poor (DLLWL), conceding 2.44/game overall
H2H: 3.8 goals/game avg across last 8 meetings, draw-prone but Austin have won 2 at home; last H2H was a 5-1 San Jose win away
Stakes: Austin in relegation danger (P14/15) — maximum home motivation; San Jose chasing European spot (P4) but depleted
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
High-scoring series averaging 3.8 goals per game with draws dominating historically, but recent meetings show San Jose winning the last two — Austin will be fired up to reverse that trend at home under relegation pressure.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
