Birmingham and Middlesbrough shared the spoils in an entertaining Championship clash that ended 2-2, defying our pre-match prediction of a 1-2 away win for the visitors. Middlesbrough struck first through Max Arfsten in the 45th minute, courtesy of an assist from Amario Cozier-Duberry, but Birmingham levelled just ten minutes into the second half when Liam Millar found the net off a pass from Jhon Elmer Solís Romero. The momentum swung back Middlesbrough's way moments later when Riley McGree's own goal put the visitors ahead at 59 minutes, only for the hosts to haul themselves level again when A. Malanda scored for Middlesbrough in the 88th minute.

Our model assigned a 29% probability to the draw before kickoff — the least likely of the three outcomes we favoured — so this result sits squarely outside our primary lean. We'd backed Middlesbrough, who arrived third in the table and unbeaten, to exploit Birmingham's mid-table malaise and come away with all three points. The visitors certainly created the platform for that, but Birmingham's resilience and the contribution of their own defensive mishaps meant neither side could hold firm. In the end, a 2-2 draw proved neither team's story — just a reminder that even well-reasoned models sit comfortably alongside plenty of plausible outcomes on any given afternoon.