📊 Recent Form
Bodo/Glimt
Kristiansund BK
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Bodo/Glimt a 73% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have Bodo/Glimt at 73% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 88% — a gap against us of 15 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 72/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Bodo/Glimt made their title-race credentials count at home, but not quite as smoothly as our model had sketched it. They won 3-1, though the script deviated from the clean sheet we'd predicted.
Ola Brynhildsen opened the scoring in the 44th minute with an assist from Ole Didrik Blomberg, putting Bodo/Glimt in control at the break. Kristiansund pulled one back through Leander Alvheim in the 66th, briefly threatening a comeback. That goal made things messier than expected, but Bodo/Glimt steadied the ship. An own goal from Frederik Flex in the 72nd extended the home side's lead, before Andreas Helmersen sealed it in the 79th — set up by Sondre Auklend — to close out the win.
Our model backed a 3-0 to Bodo/Glimt, leaning on their title-race credentials and strong home form against Kristiansund's relegation-zone struggles and poor away record. The result direction was right at 73% confidence, but the exact scoreline missed — we didn't account for Kristiansund's goal or the own goal that made the second half more competitive than anticipated. The underlying logic held up: Bodo/Glimt's quality showed, the gap in stakes and form was real, and over 2.5 goals came through. Still, football's a messy business, and clean sheets don't always arrive on schedule.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt Win | 1/25 1.06 | 88% | 73% | -15% |
| Draw | 12/1 12.50 | 8% | 12% | +4% |
| Kristiansund BK Win Value | 20/1 22.08 | 4% | 15% | +11% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Bodo/Glimt in title race (P2)
- 🆘 Kristiansund BK in relegation danger (P15/16)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Bodo/Glimt 4W at home, avg 2.37 goals scored; Kristiansund away form LLDLL, avg 1.06 goals scored
H2H: Bodo/Glimt 7W-1D-0L in last 8, high-scoring history (4.1 goals/game avg)
Stakes: Bodo/Glimt in title race (P2) vs Kristiansund in relegation danger (P15) — home side far more motivated and quality-superior
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Bodo/Glimt have won 7 of the last 8 meetings with zero losses, including a 7-1 and 4-0 at home — clear pattern of heavy Bodo/Glimt dominance in this fixture.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 3-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-0 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
