📊 Recent Form
Bodo/Glimt
Rosenborg
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Bodo/Glimt a 69% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
Across 13 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 70/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Bodo/Glimt swept past Rosenborg 4-2 in a second-half demolition that turned a tight first half into a rout. Nordli gave Rosenborg an early lead in the 35th minute with a well-taken finish, but Bjorkan levelled before the break. After the interval, Bodo/Glimt took over completely. Bjortuft made it 2-1 in the 58th minute, then Helmersen struck twice in quick succession—first in the 61st and again in the 77th—to seal the win. Ceide pulled one back for Rosenborg in the 88th, but it only cosmetics the scoreline.
Our model predicted a 3-0 Bodo/Glimt win and gave them a 69% chance of victory. We got the result direction right, but missed the exact scoreline and the shape of the match. Pre-kickoff, the data pointed to a dominant home display: Bodo/Glimt's home record is strong, and the history between these sides suggested a convincing win for the title-chasing side. The match did unfold in Bodo/Glimt's favour, but Rosenborg's early goal and second-half spiritedness made it a livelier affair than a flat 3-0 suggested.
The outcome reflects what the numbers favoured, though not how. Bodo/Glimt's quality told in the end, and they'll be pleased to extend their push at the top of the table. Rosenborg, for their part, showed fight but couldn't sustain it when Bodo/Glimt switched up the intensity after half-time.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt Win | 4/11 1.35 | 69% | 69% | ±0% |
| Draw | 9/2 5.40 | 17% | 16% | -1% |
| Rosenborg Win | 6/1 7.00 | 14% | 15% | +1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Bodo/Glimt in title race (P1)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Bodo/Glimt 90% home win rate, averaging 3.1 goals scored and only 0.9 conceded; Rosenborg away record W-L-W with a 0-5 hammering in recent away sample.
H2H: 3.9 goals/game average historically, but Bodo/Glimt's last home fixture vs Rosenborg was a 4-0 rout; neutral overall dominance but home side prevailed convincingly in May 2025.
Stakes: Bodo/Glimt in P1 and in a title race — high motivation to win convincingly; Rosenborg mid-table with little at stake.
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
High-scoring fixture historically (3.9 goals/game), but Bodo/Glimt's last home encounter produced a 4-0 clean sheet win; the H2H is balanced overall yet home dominance emerges when Glimt host.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 3-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-0 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
