📊 Recent Form
Bodo/Glimt
Sandefjord
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Bodo/Glimt a 72% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have Bodo/Glimt at 72% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 81% — a gap against us of 9 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 80/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📖 The Preview
Bodo/Glimt are top of the table and desperate for the points, while Sandefjord are looking nervously over their shoulders at the drop zone. The h2h record is overwhelmingly in Glimt's favour, and their recent form has been excellent despite a heavy injury list that includes Evjen, Gundersen, Mikkelsen and others. Sandefjord do arrive fresher with nine days' rest compared to Glimt's three, and they'll likely nick one, but at home with title pressure driving them, Glimt should have enough to edge it 2-1.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt Win | 1/7 1.15 | 81% | 72% | -9% |
| Draw | 7/1 8.00 | 12% | 15% | +3% |
| Sandefjord Win Value | 12/1 13.00 | 7% | 13% | +6% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Bodo/Glimt in title race (P1)
- 🆘 Sandefjord in relegation danger (P12, only 1 pt cushion)
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: Sandefjord (9d) vs Bodo/Glimt (3d) — Sandefjord significantly fresher
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Bodo/Glimt on a strong run (W8 in last 10, 4 straight home wins); Sandefjord in poor form (W1 in last 10, L3 of last 4 away)
H2H: Bodo/Glimt dominant in 6 of 8 meetings; avg 4 goals/game historically but recent home fixtures lean toward controlled wins
Stakes: Bodo/Glimt chasing title from P1, high motivation; Sandefjord in relegation danger but poor away form limits their threat
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Bodo/Glimt have won 6 of the last 8 meetings including a 3-0 just two months ago; the fixture averages 4 goals per game and is heavily home-dominant — Sandefjord's lone win came in July 2024 away from home.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.