Middlesbrough came to the Macron Stadium and put on a clinical display, dismantling Bolton with a five-goal performance to secure an emphatic 5-1 away victory. The visitors struck early through Aidan Morris in the 13th minute, courtesy of an assist from Amario Cozier-Duberry, then added a second via will lankshear's finish just after the half-hour mark, with Tommy Conway providing the setup. Bolton's afternoon got worse before the interval when Lewis Brunt turned the ball into his own net at the 39-minute mark, leaving the hosts staring at a 0-3 deficit at the break. Thelonius Bair pulled one back for Bolton in first-half stoppage time, assisted by Gaizka Larrazabal, but Middlesbrough simply restarted where they'd left off. Cozier-Duberry grabbed his second of the evening in the 73rd minute—this time set up by Riley McGree—before lankshear rounded off the rout with a second goal of his own, also created by McGree, to seal a 5-1 scoreline.

Our model called a Middlesbrough win beforehand, assigning it a 46% probability before kickoff, but the exact scoreline missed the mark. We'd predicted 0-2, expecting Bolton's mid-table standing and limited motivation to show against a Boro side chasing automatic promotion. Middlesbrough's form and their complete dominance in the head-to-head record suggested they'd control the tie. The match played out in line with that overarching expectation—the away side was always in command and the home defence crumbled—but the sheer scale of the victory caught the forecast wide. A clean sheet never materialized, and the goal glut proved well beyond what the pre-match numbers suggested, turning what looked like a comfortable away win into a comprehensive demolition.