📊 Recent Form
Burnley
Bristol City
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 44%. Burnley edge it at 43% against 30% for the draw and 27% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Burnley at 43% where the consensus of 11 bookmakers has 51% — a gap against us of 8 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 60/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Bristol City pulled off a comeback to stun Burnley 2-1 at Turf Moor, overturning a first-half deficit to secure all three points. Burnley started brightly and took the lead through Ramsey in the 56th minute, assisted by Hatate, but Bristol City clawed back into it when Dickie levelled in the 82nd. The visitor's composure in the closing stages paid off as Hirakawa sealed it deep into injury time, leaving Burnley empty-handed and their relegation fight intact.
Our model leaned toward Burnley before kickoff, assigning them a 43% win probability, with Bristol City at just 27%. That lean reflected Burnley's historical dominance in this fixture and their emotional investment in a survival battle, despite recent form struggles. We predicted a 1-0 scoreline, betting on a low-scoring affair with defensive solidity on one side. The match didn't play out that way. Bristol City's away record proved sturdier than the pre-match reading suggested, and Burnley couldn't hold onto their early advantage when fatigue and injury pressures mounted toward the end. It's a reminder that form runs and crisis moments don't always behave as neatly as the numbers hope—sometimes the team fighting hardest slips up at the finish line.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley Win | 4/5 1.81 | 51% | 43% | -8% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.66 | 26% | 30% | +4% |
| Bristol City Win | 3/1 4.10 | 23% | 27% | +4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Burnley in relegation danger (P23/24)
- 😴 Bristol City mid-table (P5) — low motivation
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Championship history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Burnley winless in last 10 (0% win rate), averaging under 1 goal scored per game; Bristol City averaging 1.52 goals scored with a functional away record (WDDDLW). H2H: Burnley have won all 8 last meetings, but current form and injuries suggest they cannot replicate that dominance. Stakes: Burnley fighting relegation provides emotional motivation, but injuries and fatigue are severe handicaps; Bristol City in 5th place with low urgency. Betting: BTTS likely given both sides have registered in recent outings, but high card referee and fatigue factor cap total goals below 2.5.
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Burnley have won all 8 of the last H2H meetings with zero draws or Bristol City wins, averaging 2.6 goals per game — a historically dominant pattern, though Burnley's current injury crisis and form slump make a repeat of past H2H margins unlikely.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.