Celta Vigo edged out Alaves 2-1 in a match that broke fairly evenly across the ninety minutes. The home side struck twice in the second half to set up the win: Ferran Jutglà opened the scoring in the 53rd minute with an assist from Javier Rodríguez Galiano, then Rodríguez Galiano got on the scoresheet himself fourteen minutes later, turning home a pass from Iago Aspas. Alaves pulled one back late on when Hugo Novoa Ramos finished in the 87th minute, but it wasn't enough to rescue a point. The visitors had shown up with a freshness edge—they'd had an extra week's rest—yet Celta's home ground and their clinical finishing in the second half made the difference.

Our model called this one spot-on, predicting both the 2-1 scoreline and backing Celta to win. That said, the model put the likelihood of a Celta win at 43%, meaning it was leaning that way but saw this as one plausible outcome among several rather than the most probable result. The high-scoring history between these sides and Alaves' overall stronger recent form suggested the match could go either direction, and while Celta's home advantage and the head-to-head edge pulled the needle their way, it was a lean, not a conviction call.

The match played out in line with those expectations. Celta controlled the second half and converted their chances when they came, while Alaves—despite arriving fresher—couldn't capitalize on first-half opportunities and found themselves chasing the game. A solid night for the model's read on a competitive mid-table affair.