📊 Recent Form
Charlton
Derby
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 38%. Derby edge it at 37% against 27% for the draw and 36% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 13 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 58/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Charlton came from behind to beat Derby 2-1 in a Championship clash that served up an upset over our pre-match forecast. Szmodics gave Derby an early lead with an assist from Morris in the 23rd minute, but Charlton levelled through Jones in the 61st—Grant providing the assist—before Campbell sealed the win with a goal in the 80th.
Our model had leaned toward a Derby victory and a tight scoreline, predicting a 0-1 result with a 37% probability attached to an away win. That 36% read on Charlton matched the sense that this was a closely matched pair, but we clearly overweighted Derby's away form and underestimated Charlton's capacity to turn things around at home. The match unfolded as a proper contest rather than the low-scoring affair we'd flagged, with both sides finding the net and the home side ultimately doing enough to edge it.
It's a reminder that early-season Championship fixtures remain genuinely unpredictable—both teams were still finding their feet, and the kind of defensive solidity or caution we'd anticipated didn't quite materialise. Charlton's ability to come from a goal down and find a second late on flipped the script, and while our model didn't land the result, the margin was tight enough to suggest the underlying expectation—a close, low-scoring game—wasn't entirely wide of the mark.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton Win | 13/8 2.67 | 35% | 36% | +1% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.15 | 30% | 27% | -3% |
| Derby Win | 13/8 2.63 | 35% | 37% | +2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Championship history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Charlton WLWLWDW at home, Derby LDLWLLW away with just 29% win rate
H2H: Last 8 meetings split 4-3-1 in Derby's favour, avg 2.3 goals/game, most recent result was a 1-1 draw
Stakes: Both sides early-season, mid-table, no pressure — classic draw conditions
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 meetings are evenly contested with Derby edging wins 4-3, but the most recent encounter ended 1-1 and low-scoring draws are a recurring theme; avg 2.3 goals/game points to modest but bilateral scoring.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.