They are scoring 0.82 goals a game, which ranks 22nd of 24 in the Championship against a divisional average of 1.44.
At the other end they concede 1.82 a game — 21st best in the division, where the average side ships 1.44.
The split between home and away is pronounced — 0.80 points per game away against 0.33 at home — and the engine weights that gap in every fixture it prices.
Overall that is 6 points from 11 matches, 23rd in the table and a 10th percentile profile against the rest of the division.
Derby grade out weak for away form and weak for home form. That shape — a side whose away form carries them and whose home form is the department most likely to cost a tight match — is why the engine prices their fixtures the way it does: a projected margin that tracks the goal difference rather than the reputation.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
 Swansea |
11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 23 | LWWWW |
| 2 |
 West Ham |
11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 12 | +18 | 22 | WWDDW |
| 3 |
 Middlesbrough |
11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 22 | DWWDD |
| 4 |
 Birmingham |
11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 20 | WWWDW |
| 5 |
 West Brom |
11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 20 | WWLLD |
| 6 |
 Stoke City |
11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 7 |
 Wolves |
11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 18 | DWLLW |
| 8 |
 Southampton |
11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 17 | DWWLW |
| 9 |
 QPR |
11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 | LWDDD |
| 10 |
 Blackburn |
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 15 | LWWDW |
| 11 |
 Sheffield Utd |
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 | WLWLL |
| 12 |
Millwall |
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 15 | DLWDD |
| 13 |
 Portsmouth |
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 15 | DWWLD |
| 14 |
 Wrexham |
11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 14 | WLDWL |
| 15 |
 Bolton |
11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 14 | DWLWW |
| 16 |
 Bristol City |
11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 17 |
 Charlton |
11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 14 | LDDLD |
| 18 |
 Lincoln |
11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 12 | DLLLW |
| 19 |
 Cardiff |
11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 11 | DWLWL |
| 20 |
 Watford |
11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 | WLLLL |
| 21 |
 Norwich |
11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 9 | LLLLL |
| 22 |
 Burnley |
11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 8 | LDWDL |
| 23 |
Derby
|
11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 6 | LLDDL |
| 24 |
 Preston |
11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 4 | LLLDL |
Every prediction on this club was published before kick-off and graded against the final score afterwards. Nothing has been removed, including the misses — the strip above shows them alongside the hits. We are not publishing a hit-rate percentage for Derby yet: 20 graded picks is too small a sample for one to mean anything, and a precise-looking figure off a sample this size would be misleading rather than transparent. The site-wide accuracy record, which pools every league, is the number worth reading until this one catches up.
Derby are covered by the 8th Day Engine, which publishes a projected scoreline and a win probability for every Championship fixture before kick-off.
They currently sit 23rd in the Championship on 6 points from 11 matches, with 9 scored and 20 conceded for a goal difference of -11.
The engine grades them E overall — a 10th percentile side across attack, defence, consistency, momentum and both home and away form, measured against every other club in the division rather than against reputation.
We hold 20 graded predictions on Derby so far, 10 of which called the right result. That is too small a sample to quote a hit rate from, so we do not quote one; every pick is listed above, misses included.
Predictions on this page are modelled estimates published for transparency, not betting advice.
Ratings on this page are percentiles against the other clubs in the Championship, recomputed from the current league table every time it refreshes. Records, goals and home/away splits are the complete league figures; anything labelled “graded” covers only the matches we published a prediction on.