📊 Recent Form
Chicago Fire
New England Revolution
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 44%. Chicago Fire edge it at 43% against 32% for the draw and 25% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Chicago Fire at 43% where the consensus of 7 bookmakers has 48% — a gap against us of 5 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 64/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
New England Revolution came away with a 2-1 victory at Chicago Fire, turning in a composed display that saw them strike twice in quick succession early in the second half. Dor Turgeman opened the scoring in the 39th minute with an assist from Jackson Yueill, then doubled the lead just after the restart when Peyton Miller found the net with Turgeman turning provider. Chicago pulled one back through Maren Haile-Selassie in the 62nd minute—Robin Lod with the assist—but it proved only a consolation as the Revolution held firm to secure the win.
Our model predicted a 2-1 scoreline heading into kickoff, though it assigned the New England outcome just a 25% probability, leaning instead toward a Chicago home win at 43%. The actual result caught us on the wrong side of that lean. We'd flagged the teams' high-scoring history and backed both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, which the match did deliver. Where the model misfired was on the direction: Chicago's strong home form and two-goal advantage in recent head-to-head meetings weighted the forecast toward a Fire win, while New England's inconsistency away from Gillette Stadium suggested they'd struggle. The Revolution's clinical execution in the second half—converting chances with minimum fuss after a goalless first 38 minutes—undercut that expectation. Sometimes the lean doesn't land, and this was one of those nights.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 7 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire Win | 10/11 1.95 | 48% | 43% | -5% |
| Draw Value | 3/1 3.90 | 24% | 32% | +8% |
| New England Revolution Win | 5/2 3.40 | 28% | 25% | -3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Chicago Fire strong at home (DWWW), NE Revolution inconsistent away (WLWWLD); Home win probability model-backed at 40%
H2H: High-scoring history averaging 3.5 goals/game; Chicago have won 2 of last 3 home H2H meetings including a 3-2 last September
Stakes: Both teams mid-table in MLS with no extreme pressure, slight home motivation edge for Chicago
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Draw-prone series but recent home meetings have favoured Chicago Fire, with the Sep 2025 encounter ending 3-2 — high-scoring clashes are the norm at an average of 3.5 goals per game across last 8 meetings.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
