📊 Recent Form
Cremonese
Benevento
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 37%. Benevento edge it at 36% against 32% for the draw and 32% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 9 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cremonese Win | 7/4 2.71 | 34% | 32% | -2% |
| Draw | 2/1 3.08 | 30% | 32% | +2% |
| Benevento Win | 13/8 2.62 | 36% | 36% | ±0% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Cremonese in relegation danger (P15, only 2 pt cushion)
- 😴 Benevento mid-table (P5) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Cremonese xG 1 | Benevento xG 1.65
Projected: 21% / 37% / 42%
H2H: 1W-2D-3L
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
1W-2D-3L for Cremonese in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
