📊 Recent Form
Modena
Mantova
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Modena at 49%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 24% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Modena at 49% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 54% — a gap against us of 5 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena Win | 4/6 1.70 | 54% | 49% | -5% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.75 | 25% | 24% | -1% |
| Mantova Win Value | 7/2 4.55 | 21% | 27% | +6% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Modena in title race (P2)
- ⬆️ Mantova in promotion hunt (P4)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Modena xG 1.59 | Mantova xG 1.26
Projected: 50% / 23% / 27%
H2H: 4W-3D-1L
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
4W-3D-1L for Modena in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
