📊 Recent Form
Derby
Cardiff
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 41%. Derby edge it at 40% against 25% for the draw and 35% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–2 points to Cardiff while the probabilities favour Derby. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have Derby at 40% where the consensus of 14 bookmakers has 48% — a gap against us of 8 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 64/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Derby and Cardiff played out a pulsating 2-2 draw at Pride Park, with both sides trading blows across a match that swung back and forth until the final whistle. Cardiff struck first through Ashford in the 19th minute, assisted by Kpakio, but Derby levelled seven minutes later when Morris converted from Clark's assist. The visitors regained the lead just before the break when Salech finished from a Colwill cross, only for Clark to haul Derby level again early in the second half with a well-taken 49th-minute goal. Neither side found a winner, and the points were shared in an entertaining encounter.
Our model forecast a 1-2 Cardiff win with the draw rated at just 25 per cent, so this outcome came in as a clear miss. We'd weighted Cardiff's excellent recent form and their dominance in the head-to-head record heavily, expecting them to edge a tight contest—but Derby showed real character to fight back twice and deny the visitors. The model had leaned on Cardiff's momentum and home-and-away tendencies, yet the hosts refused to lie down when it mattered. It's a reminder that form can't predict everything: Derby were supposed to struggle at home, yet they proved capable of matching a side riding high.
The draw felt earned on the day. Both teams had chances to win it, and the match unfolded with genuine competitive balance rather than the one-way traffic the pre-match data suggested. A fair result that leaves both sides with a point apiece and plenty to build on in the Championship run-in.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby Win | 1/1 1.96 | 48% | 40% | -8% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.50 | 27% | 25% | -2% |
| Cardiff Win Value | 11/4 3.73 | 25% | 35% | +10% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Championship history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Derby struggling (25% win rate, avg 0.86 goals scored at home); Cardiff in excellent form with 4 consecutive wins and high scoring
H2H: Cardiff dominant — 5 wins in last 8, away-dominant pattern, Cardiff won most recent meeting 2-1
Stakes: Both mid-table with no immediate pressure, slight edge to Cardiff given form momentum
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Cardiff have dominated this fixture across recent years with 5 wins in the last 8 meetings, including wins of 4-0 and 2-1 in recent seasons; away side has consistently performed better in this matchup.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.