📊 Recent Form
Derby
Stoke City
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 40%. Stoke City edge it at 39% against 27% for the draw and 34% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Stoke City at 39% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 35% — a gap in our favour of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 62/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Stoke City made their trip to Derby County count on Saturday, securing a 1-0 victory through Luke Graham's second-half strike. Graham finished clinically after an assist from Ethan Galbraith in the 49th minute — a clean, decisive finish that proved enough to settle the contest. It wasn't a high-scoring affair, and it left our pre-match prediction of a 1-2 scoreline wide of the mark.
Our model leaned toward a Stoke win at 39% probability, which came to pass, but it expected more goals. The forecast pointed to a pair of teams likely to rack up chances — Derby's form suggested defensive struggles, and Stoke's recent pattern on the road here hinted at multiple goals in their favor. The history between these sides reinforced that lean: their last eight meetings had averaged 2.4 goals per game, with Stoke winning convincingly in both of their last two visits to this ground. What unfolded instead was a tighter, more controlled affair, with Stoke taking their opportunity and Derby unable to break through despite the pressure that typically comes with fighting relegation.
The result underlines the gap in quality when Stoke get it right on the road, even if the goalscoring narrative didn't align with expectation. A low-scoring away win isn't uncommon in the Championship, and our model simply weighted the chances higher than they materialized.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby Win | 6/4 2.50 | 37% | 34% | -3% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.34 | 28% | 27% | -1% |
| Stoke City Win | 13/8 2.68 | 35% | 39% | +4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Derby in relegation danger (P23/24)
- 😴 Stoke City mid-table (P8) — low motivation
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Championship history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Derby averaging under 1 goal scored per game at home with a run of DLLLD; Stoke averaging 2.02 goals scored overall with WWDLL away — competent road record
H2H: Last 8 meetings average 2.4 goals per game; Stoke won at Derby in Aug 2025 (3-1) and Nov 2024 (2-1) — pattern of Stoke scoring multiple goals on the road here
Stakes: Derby in relegation danger (P23) will fight hard but are exhausted and injury-hit; Stoke mid-table (P8) but in excellent recent form providing its own motivation
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Recent H2H leans toward competitive, multi-goal affairs — Stoke won 3-1 (Aug 2025) and 2-1 (Nov 2024) at their ground, while Derby won 2-0 at home in Apr 2026. Away wins for Stoke are a genuine trend in this fixture, and the 2.4 goals-per-game H2H average supports a 3-goal total.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.