📊 Recent Form
Derby
Swansea
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 38%. Derby edge it at 37% against 31% for the draw and 32% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–1 points to a draw while the probabilities favour Derby. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have Derby at 37% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 41% — a gap against us of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as low at 49/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Derby offered precious little resistance as Swansea swept to a commanding 3-0 victory at Pride Park. The visitors struck early through Opoku in the second minute—assisted by Eom Ji-Sung—and never looked back. Eom doubled the lead before half-time with a goal of his own on 44 minutes, and though Derby created little of note in the second half, Swansea added a third deep into injury time when Martins converted from Eustáquio's assist to seal a comprehensive win.
Our model had leaned toward a 1-1 draw, assigning just a 32% probability to a Swansea victory. With both sides occupying mid-table positions and showing mixed recent form, the expectation was for a low-intensity affair—the kind of dead-rubber that often ends in stalemate. Derby's home record suggested limited attacking threat, and Swansea's away form looked equally cautious, so a tightly contested contest seemed reasonable. None of that materialised. Swansea came out with real intent, Derby struggled to respond, and the match quickly got away from the form book. It's a clean miss—we got the winner wrong and the scoreline completely off. The visitors' early intensity and clinical finishing were things the model hadn't weighted heavily enough, and this one's a good reminder that Championship mid-table games don't always play out as expected.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby Win | 5/4 2.30 | 41% | 37% | -4% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.25 | 29% | 31% | +2% |
| Swansea Win | 2/1 3.10 | 30% | 32% | +2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Derby mid-table (P16) — low motivation
- 😴 Swansea mid-table (P9) — low motivation
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Championship history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Derby averaging 1.1 goals scored at home with three losses/draws in last three; Swansea averaging just 0.67 goals scored away.
H2H: Neutral dominance over last 8 meetings, avg 2.1 goals/game, recent results tight and low-scoring.
Stakes: Both teams mid-table (Derby P16, Swansea P9) with no promotion or relegation pressure — classic dead-rubber scenario favouring a draw.
Betting: both teams to score, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Neutral H2H dominance across last 8 meetings with Swansea edging 4 wins to Derby's 3. Recent clashes have been tight — Derby won 2-0 in Feb 2026 but many meetings settled by a single goal, reinforcing a low-scoring pattern.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-1 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.