📊 Recent Form
Derby
West Brom
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 41%. West Brom edge it at 40% against 27% for the draw and 33% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 6 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
West Brom ground out a 1-0 win at Derby in a match that swung decisively on discipline as much as quality. Aune Heggebo broke the deadlock in the 16th minute, assisted by J. Morgan, to give the visitors an early lead they'd defend for the rest of the afternoon. The game's turning point came just after the half-hour when West Brom's Brayann Pereira was sent off, leaving the visitors to see out the final hour with ten men and Derby chasing an equaliser they couldn't find.
Our model backed West Brom to win before kickoff, though at 40% it was the most likely outcome among several plausible ones rather than a confident call. The pre-match analysis flagged West Brom's superior expected goals — 1.88 to Derby's 1.06 — as the key advantage, and that underlying edge showed up in Heggebo's early finish. Where the model's prediction of a 1-2 scoreline missed was in the execution: Derby couldn't capitalise on their numerical advantage through the second half, and West Brom's red card proved survivable. A narrow away win on the road, earned through a combination of clinical finishing and resilience under pressure.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby Win | 7/4 2.78 | 33% | 33% | ±0% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.35 | 28% | 27% | -1% |
| West Brom Win | 11/8 2.41 | 39% | 40% | +1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Derby in relegation danger (P20, only 1 pt cushion)
- 😴 West Brom mid-table (P5) — low motivation
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Championship history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Derby xG 1.06 | West Brom xG 1.88
Projected: 22% / 29% / 49%
H2H: 5W-3D-0L
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
5W-3D-0L for Derby in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.