📊 Recent Form
Derby
Wrexham
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 39%. Wrexham edge it at 38% against 29% for the draw and 33% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 10 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 58/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Derby and Wrexham served up a familiar Championship stalemate, with neither side able to find a decisive edge in a match that ended 1-1. Szmodics gave Derby an early lead in the ninth minute, assisted by Fuseini, but Wrexham clawed back through Rathbone's finish in the 88th minute, Moore providing the assist. It was the kind of draw that leaves both camps feeling they'd left something on the pitch.
Our model had leaned toward a Wrexham win, predicting a 1-2 scoreline with a 38% confidence in the visitors. The draw carried only a 29% probability in our pre-match read, so we missed the mark on this one. The model had weighted Derby's relegation battle against their home form struggles—a legitimate concern—while noting that Wrexham's mid-table position and decent away record pointed toward an upset or a narrow win. What we hadn't fully accounted for was Derby's defensive grit when it mattered or Wrexham's inability to push home their advantage after equalizing late on.
The narrative of the match itself stayed reasonably close to the broader shape we'd flagged: a low-stakes affair where Derby scraped together an early goal despite their threadbare squad, and Wrexham responded with enough quality to deny them. It wasn't the scoreline we predicted, but it wasn't entirely out of step with the underlying contest. Sometimes the draw really is the fairest reflection.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby Win | 13/8 2.65 | 35% | 33% | -2% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.25 | 29% | 29% | ±0% |
| Wrexham Win | 6/4 2.56 | 36% | 38% | +2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Derby in relegation danger (P22/24)
- 😴 Wrexham mid-table (P14) — low motivation
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Championship history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Derby in terrible home form (LLLDL), scoring just 0.89 per game with a 10% win rate overall; Wrexham away form is decent (LDWDLW) with 30% win rate
H2H: Wrexham won last meeting 1-2 at Derby (Jan 2026), prior game was 1-1 — pattern favours Wrexham or a draw, avg 2.5 goals/game
Stakes: Derby in relegation danger (P22/24) — some motivation defensively but poor squad depth with 6 injuries; Wrexham mid-table (P14/24) — lower urgency but rested and quality enough to win
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Wrexham won the most recent meeting 1-2 at Derby (Jan 2026); prior clash ended 1-1 at Wrexham (Sep 2025). Pattern shows narrow, competitive games with Wrexham having the upper hand — two meetings averaging 2.5 goals, both involving goals for both sides.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.