Atletico Madrid got the job done at Espanyol with a late strike to secure a 1-0 win and keep their title charge on track. Alejandro Baena Rodríguez finished it off in the 89th minute, tapping home from Julián Álvarez's assist, to break down a stubborn home side and claim all three points on the road. It wasn't the kind of free-flowing demolition you might've expected from a side in Atletico's current form, but it was exactly the sort of gritty, clinical performance a title contender needs when the margin for error gets thin.

Our model had fancied Atletico at 49% to win and predicted a 1-2 scoreline — we got the result right but missed on the exact finish. The call leaned on Atletico's excellent recent run and their position in the title hunt versus Espanyol's mid-table standing and mixed form. Before kickoff, those factors looked primed to produce a competitive match tilted in Atletico's favour, and the match broadly played out that way: it stayed tight until late, when Atletico's class and hunger finally told. The difference was we'd weighted a higher goal tally, particularly an Espanyol goal, whereas the visitors' defence held firm and the hosts never really found a way through.

It's the kind of outcome that stings for prediction models — you nail the direction and miss the detail — but it underscores what Atletico have become this season: ruthlessly efficient rather than fancy. Three points on the road in a title race is what matters, and they've got exactly that.