Estrela pulled off a comeback win against SC Braga on Sunday, finishing 2-1 after falling behind early. Gabriel Martínez Aguilera fired Braga in front in the fifth minute off an assist from Pau Victor, putting the visitors on course for what looked like a straightforward afternoon. But Estrela levelled before the break when Ianis Stoica scored on the stroke of halftime, set up by Eddy Doué. The tie stayed level into the second half until Stoica struck again in the 56th minute, this time fed by Abraham Marcus, to complete Estrela's turnaround and seal the three points.

Our model backed a 1-2 Braga win going in, rating it as the likeliest outcome at 47 percent. Estrela's win carried just 24 percent in our pre-match read—a lean among plausible results, but not the favourite. The model had weighted Braga as the superior side on both form and motivation, with the visitors chasing European qualification while Estrela sat mid-table with less on the line. That assessment didn't pan out. Instead, Estrela's home support and squad depth made the difference, and they fought back to turn the tie after going down early. It's a reminder that even when the numbers favour one side, football still lets the underdog case breathe—and on the day, Estrela were too strong.