📊 Recent Form
Fredrikstad
Sandefjord
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Fredrikstad at 49%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 28% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Fredrikstad at 49% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 41% — a gap in our favour of 8 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as low at 44/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Fredrikstad saw off Sandefjord 1-0 at home in a low-scoring Eliteserien clash between two sides fighting relegation. F. Holme's finish in the 39th minute, set up by M. Nilsson, proved the difference on the night. It was a tight affair throughout, and the single goal held up despite late pressure from the visitors.
Our model had fancied a 1-0 Fredrikstad win, though that wasn't the most likely outcome—it sat at 49% for a Fredrikstad victory overall, with the exact scoreline landing as our primary prediction. The match unfolded roughly in line with the pre-match shape: both teams under enormous pressure near the foot of the table, Fredrikstad carrying a home advantage and a slight edge in recent head-to-head records, Sandefjord's away form in poor shape. A tight, low-scoring contest was always the calling card here, and that's exactly what we got—a clean sheet at one end and just enough at the other to settle it.
For a team with mixed recent form, Fredrikstad got the three points they needed badly. Sandefjord's inability to break through on the road cost them dearly. Both clubs remain in a scrap, but this result eases some of the pressure on Fredrikstad and leaves Sandefjord looking for answers in their next outing.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrikstad Win Value | 5/4 2.30 | 41% | 49% | +8% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.35 | 28% | 28% | ±0% |
| Sandefjord Win | 2/1 3.00 | 31% | 23% | -8% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Fredrikstad in relegation danger (P12, only 2 pt cushion)
- 🆘 Sandefjord in relegation danger (P11, only 3 pt cushion)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Fredrikstad poor overall (20% win rate) but improving at home (LDDWW); Sandefjord winless in last 4 away (LLLL)
H2H: Fredrikstad dominant in H2H (4W-3D-1L), recent meetings low-scoring and tight
Stakes: Both clubs in relegation danger but Fredrikstad at home with crowd advantage and slightly worse league position creates urgency
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Fredrikstad hold clear H2H advantage (4W-3D-1L in last 8); recent meetings have been close and low-scoring including 1-1 and 0-0 in 2025-26, supporting a tight contest
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.