Fredrikstad Predictions
AI-powered match predictions, accuracy tracking, and bookmaker consensus comparisons.
📊 Past Predictions (latest 4)
Fredrikstad claimed a crucial 2-1 victory over Start in a match that unfolded in starkly different phases. Start's desperation showed early when J. Cornelius struck in the eighth minute with an assist from H. Lorentzen, catching the home side cold and exploiting their inconsistent form. That shock early lead, however, proved temporary. Fredrikstad equalised through D. Eid in the 65th minute before O. Ohlenschlaeger restored the advantage in the 75th, with Eid providing the assist. The match turned bitter in stoppage time when Start's A. Ujkani received a red card in the 90+3rd minute, leaving the visitors to rue what might have been.
The prediction of a 3-0 Fredrikstad win proved directionally sound but tactically off the mark. Our model correctly identified Fredrikstad as clear favourites and called the outcome, but significantly overestimated the margin. The key factor we'd flagged—Start's dismal away record of six consecutive losses—did ultimately matter, yet it manifested differently than anticipated. Rather than a rout, Fredrikstad were forced to rally from behind, suggesting their home-ground resilience (evident in recent form of WLDW) outweighed the inconsistency that defines their season overall. Start's early goal demonstrated they remain capable of moments on the road, but the underlying frailty in their away performances eventually told. For both clubs battling relegation, this result carries outsized weight: Fredrikstad consolidated their position with a hard-fought home win, while Start's inability to hold their advantage away from home deepens their crisis at the foot of the table.
Sandefjord and Fredrikstad played out a 1-1 draw on Saturday, frustrating a home side that dominated large stretches of the match. Sandefjord broke through in the 63rd minute when Niels Moller converted after a setup from Runar Alte, putting the hosts firmly in control. However, Fredrikstad refused to yield, and in the 90+1st minute, substitute impact proved decisive as Bård Faraas equalized from Flemming Holme's assist, salvaging a point that felt increasingly unlikely as the clock wound down.
Our pre-match model predicted a 2-0 Sandefjord victory with 73% win probability for the hosts. The prediction missed the mark on both count and outcome. The underlying logic was sound—Sandefjord's solid home form and Fredrikstad's fragile away record, combined with the visitors' attacking limitations, suggested a comfortable home win. That defensive vulnerability for Fredrikstad away from home did partially materialize, as Sandefjord created the first goal and controlled the tempo. What the model underestimated was Fredrikstad's capacity to salvage something late, even with key attackers sidelined by injury. The visitors showed resolve when it mattered most, and a single moment of vulnerability at the death cost Sandefjord a likely three points.
For Sandefjord, dropping two points at home against a team in relegation trouble represents a missed opportunity. For Fredrikstad, the late leveler offers a lifeline in their fight to stay up, though they'll need more consistent performances away from home if they're to survive the season.
Fredrikstad secured a crucial 2-1 victory over Ham-Kam, though the path to three points proved messier than anticipated. Serdar Rafn broke the deadlock in the 36th minute with an assist from R. R. Shein, putting the home side in control. The narrative shifted dramatically five minutes before halftime when an own goal from M. Gjone extended Fredrikstad's advantage to 2-0. Ham-Kam pulled one back through A. Trondsen's 90+7th-minute effort, but it came too late to change the outcome. For a Fredrikstad team in genuine relegation peril at P14/16, the result delivered the points their desperate circumstances demanded.
Our model predicted a 2-0 scoreline with 76% confidence in a Fredrikstad win, and while we called the result direction correctly, the exact outcome eluded us. The pre-match analysis flagged Ham-Kam's weak away record and Fredrikstad's defensive necessity as reasons to expect a low-scoring affair, and the initial 2-0 scoreline at the 44th minute seemed to validate those underlying factors perfectly. What we didn't fully account for was Ham-Kam's capacity to create late pressure despite their mid-table comfort and apparent lack of motivation. The own goal—a self-inflicted wound rather than a penalty or clear error—added an element of chaos that pure statistical modeling struggles to predict.
The closing stages revealed a gap between the pre-match assumptions and match reality. Fredrikstad's defensive frailties, evident in their broader season struggles, did leave them exposed in stoppage time, allowing Trondsen to exploit space that the pre-match context suggested Ham-Kam simply wouldn't pursue. That said, Fredrikstad got what mattered most: three points in a season where every result carries existential weight.
Sarpsborg 08 FF came from behind to secure a 2-1 victory over visiting Fredrikstad, with Viktor Emil Halvorsen's brace proving decisive in a match that unfolded in contrasting halves. Fredrikstad struck first through Fredrik Holme's 17th-minute opener, capitalizing on an early opportunity that seemed to validate their threat on the road. However, Sarpsborg equalized before half-time when Halvorsen drew level on the stroke of 41 minutes, then sealed three points with a second goal in the 90th minute to snatch a dramatic winner.
Our model predicted a 1-0 Sarpsborg victory with 49% win probability, correctly calling the result direction but missing the actual scoreline. The prediction favored an Under 2.5 outcome based on Fredrikstad's modest away record and historically low-scoring encounters between these sides—factors that held partially true given the tight H2H average of 2.1 goals per game. What the model underestimated was Sarpsborg's capacity to breach a visiting defense that, while solid in previous derbies, proved vulnerable when pressed late. The exact 2-1 scoreline represented volatility within the expected range rather than a fundamental model failure.
The match validated several pre-match flags: Fredrikstad's away form remained problematic despite their superior overall win percentage, while Sarpsborg's poor recent record did little to suggest this dominant second-half performance. Halvorsen's decisive brace, arriving in the 41st and 90th minutes, epitomized a home team that absorbed early pressure before asserting control. The result lifts Sarpsborg's mid-table standing while exposing the fragility of Fredrikstad's away credentials once more.
🌱 Building History
We've only predicted 4 matches for Fredrikstad so far. As more fixtures are scheduled and predicted, accuracy stats and patterns will become more reliable.