📊 Recent Form
Ham-Kam
Aalesund
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Ham-Kam at 52%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 24% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Ham-Kam at 52% where the consensus of 14 bookmakers has 45% — a gap in our favour of 7 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 58/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Ham-Kam and Aalesund played out a 1-1 draw in Eliteserien, with the visitors grabbing an early second-half equalizer after the home side had edged in front just before half-time. Osenbroch opened the scoring for Aalesund in the 45th minute with help from Christensen, but Gjone leveled for Ham-Kam ten minutes into the second half, assisted by Metcalfe. Neither side found a winner despite having chances to do so.
Our pre-match model predicted a 2-1 win for Ham-Kam and assigned a 24% probability to the draw that actually materialized. It's a miss on the scoreline, though not an outlandish one — the model had weighted a home win fairly heavily based on Ham-Kam's home xG advantage and Aalesund's defensive vulnerability, particularly given their injury crisis and relegation-zone pegging. The actual result played out tighter than expected. Aalesund's poor defensive record didn't prevent them from holding firm when it mattered, and they proved capable of threatening on the break despite their circumstances.
The draw leaves both sides where it leaves them — Ham-Kam mid-table, Aalesund still in a scrap at the bottom. Our model didn't call this one right, but it wasn't working with faulty reasoning; sometimes the tighter outcome is simply what happens on the day, regardless of the underlying imbalances beforehand.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ham-Kam Win Value | 11/10 2.10 | 45% | 52% | +7% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.73 | 25% | 24% | -1% |
| Aalesund Win | 2/1 3.13 | 30% | 24% | -6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Aalesund in relegation danger (P14/16)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Ham-Kam inconsistent overall but hold home xG advantage; Aalesund defensively very poor (3.02 conceded avg) with heavy injury list
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: Aalesund in relegation battle (P14/16) — adds fight but injury crisis undermines their capacity; Ham-Kam mid-table with normal motivation
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
