📊 Recent Form
Ham-Kam
Bodo/Glimt
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Bodo/Glimt a 60% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have Bodo/Glimt at 60% where the consensus of 6 bookmakers has 76% — a gap against us of 16 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 70/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Bodo/Glimt came to Ullevaal and did what they've been doing all season—dominated a struggling opponent and left with a clean sheet. Ole Didrik Blomberg broke the deadlock in the 19th minute, assisted by Fredrik Sjovold, and Joel Mvuka added a second just before the interval courtesy of Patrick Berg's assist. Ham-Kam had no answer. A 2-0 scoreline gives the visitors three points and keeps the pressure on in the title race, while the hosts remain in genuine relegation trouble.
Our model leaned toward a Bodo/Glimt win at 60% probability and predicted a 3-0 scoreline, so we got the result direction right but overestimated the visitors' scoring output. The pre-match indicators all pointed in the right direction—Ham-Kam's weak defensive record at home, Bodo/Glimt's form and away prowess, plus the historical pattern of heavy defeats in this fixture—but the match stopped one goal short of what we'd flagged. That's football. Sometimes the expected pattern holds the shape but not the exact numbers, and Bodo/Glimt's efficiency in front of goal fell just shy of the projection.
What did play out as anticipated was the fundamental mismatch. Ham-Kam were outclassed by a side in title contention, Bodo/Glimt controlled the tempo, and the gap between these two teams showed up clearly on the pitch. The clean sheet held and the goals came, even if the final tally wasn't what the model had circled beforehand.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ham-Kam Win Value | 9/1 10.00 | 9% | 24% | +15% |
| Draw | 11/2 6.33 | 15% | 16% | +1% |
| Bodo/Glimt Win | 2/9 1.23 | 76% | 60% | -16% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Ham-Kam in relegation danger (P11, only 5 pt cushion)
- 🏆 Bodo/Glimt in title race (P2)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Ham-Kam 20% win rate, conceding 2.93/game at home; Bodo/Glimt 80% win rate, scoring 2.29/game away
H2H: Bodo/Glimt won 6 of 8, with 3-0 appearing three times in last five meetings
Stakes: Ham-Kam desperate to avoid relegation but outclassed; Bodo/Glimt pushing for title
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-3.
⚔️ Head to Head
Bodo/Glimt have been ruthless in this fixture — three 3-0 wins in the last five H2H meetings, with Ham-Kam only managing one win and one draw across eight encounters. Away dominance is clear.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-3 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 0-3 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
