Molde came to Ullevål and put on a dominant display, overwhelming Ham-Kam 5-1 in a result that underlined the gulf between the two sides. The visitors struck early through Jalal Abdullai in the fifth minute, courtesy of an assist from Niklas Ödegard, then weathered a brief Ham-Kam response when Mohamed Ofkir equalised just after the restart. From there it was all Molde. Trent Kone-Doherty took over the show, scoring three times—first in the 56th minute off Sondre Granaas's cross, then again two minutes later from an Abdullai pass, before adding a third without assistance in the 84th. Kristian Lonebu rounded it out in the 90th, finishing a move set up by Emil Breivik.

Our model had predicted a 1-2 scoreline, giving Molde a 44% chance of victory—the likeliest outcome but far from a certainty. We called the result direction correctly but badly misjudged the scale. The forecast centred on Molde's attacking prowess and Ham-Kam's vulnerable defence, and those factors did hold true enough. What we didn't anticipate was quite how thoroughly Molde would take control after the break. The gap between a narrow away win and a five-goal demolition is where the model fell short: we'd flagged the underlying quality difference and Molde's hunger to climb the table, but underestimated how ruthlessly they'd put it to use once they found their rhythm.