📊 Recent Form
Ham-Kam
Rosenborg
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Rosenborg at 49%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 22% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Rosenborg at 49% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 59% — a gap against us of 10 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 64/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Rosenborg ran out convincing 3-0 winners away at Ham-Kam, putting the home side further into relegation trouble. The visitors took control in the second half, with an own goal from Mares breaking the deadlock in the 69th minute before Amin Chiakha doubled the lead five minutes later, assisted by Emil Konradsen Ceide. Chiakha then turned provider as Konradsen Ceide sealed it with a third in the 89th minute, leaving Ham-Kam with nothing to show for their efforts.
Our model leaned toward a Rosenborg win at 49% probability, predicting a 1-2 scoreline. The result backed the favourite — Rosenborg's dominance was expected given their strong form and Ham-Kam's desperate situation fighting relegation — but the margin was wider than we'd called. The pre-match outlook flagged Rosenborg's defensive solidity and Ham-Kam's vulnerability at the back, and that showed up here, though a clean sheet rather than the containing performance we'd pencilled in. The second-half execution was clinical and professional, exactly the kind of control you'd expect from a side pushing for European football against a team scrapping for survival.
The defeat leaves Ham-Kam under real pressure. Rosenborg, meanwhile, kept their bid for a top-five finish on track with a complete performance that never needed to be spectacular — just efficient and composed.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ham-Kam Win Value | 4/1 4.95 | 19% | 29% | +10% |
| Draw | 10/3 4.20 | 22% | 22% | ±0% |
| Rosenborg Win | 3/5 1.60 | 59% | 49% | -10% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Ham-Kam in relegation danger (P12, only 2 pt cushion)
- 🇪🇺 Rosenborg in European race (P5)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Ham-Kam poor (20% win rate, conceding 2.75/game); Rosenborg strong (70% win rate, only 1.14 conceded/game)
H2H: Rosenborg dominate 6-2 over 8 meetings, avg 2.9 goals/game, away-dominant pattern
Stakes: Ham-Kam desperate to avoid relegation (2pt cushion); Rosenborg pushing for Europe (P5)
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Rosenborg have won 6 of last 8 meetings with 0 draws, including a 4-0 away win in Sep 2026 and a 2-0 result in Jul 2025. The fixture has produced 2.9 goals on average, reinforcing a high-scoring away-dominant trend.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.

