📊 Recent Form
Kristiansund BK
Rosenborg
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 41%. Rosenborg edge it at 40% against 22% for the draw and 38% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Rosenborg at 40% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 61% — a gap against us of 21 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 66/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Rosenborg came away with a convincing 3-1 victory at Kristiansund, turning what looked like it might be a tighter affair into a comfortable win. Kristiansund struck first through David Tufekcic, with Jesper Isaksen picking out the assist, but Rosenborg levelled just two minutes later when Mads Bomholt found the net. The visitors took control after the break, with Noah Sahsah extending their lead in the 50th minute, and Amin Chiakha sealed it late on, assisted by Adrian Nilsen Pereira.
Our model leaned toward a 1-2 scoreline with Rosenborg favoured at 40% to win — hardly a confident call among what looked like a plausible three-way split. The result direction proved spot on, but we underestimated Rosenborg's ability to pull clear. The pre-match indicators looked sound enough: Rosenborg were in excellent form and had historically dominated this fixture, while Kristiansund were struggling and under real pressure. Those factors held true — Rosenborg controlled the second half and closed out the game convincingly. We just didn't quite account for the margin, missing the extra goal that separated the sides. It's a fair miss; a one-goal win was always among the likely outcomes, and this just proved to be the one that landed.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristiansund BK Win Value | 4/1 5.25 | 18% | 38% | +20% |
| Draw | 10/3 4.40 | 21% | 22% | +1% |
| Rosenborg Win | 1/2 1.51 | 61% | 40% | -21% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Kristiansund BK in relegation danger (P14/16)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Rosenborg in excellent form (WWLWWLWLWW, 3.29 avg goals), Kristiansund struggling (30% win rate, conceding 2.66/game)
H2H: Rosenborg dominate with 4 wins from 8, avg 4.3 goals/game — high-scoring fixture historically
Stakes: Kristiansund in relegation danger (P14/16) providing extra motivation, Rosenborg playing for pride/position
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Rosenborg have won 4 of last 8 meetings with only 1 Kristiansund win. Fixtures are historically high-scoring (4.3 goals/game avg), including a 4-1 and 0-4 in recent meetings. Away wins and high totals are a recurring theme.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
