Liverpool edged Atletico Madrid 2-1 in a tight Champions League knockout tie that swung decisively in the second half. Atletico struck first through Llorente in the 17th minute, set up by Álvarez, but Liverpool drew level before the break when Szoboszlai finished from an Araujo assist on 40 minutes. The decisive moment came early in the second half: Mac Allister made it 2-1 in the 50th minute, tapping in after Isak's pass, and that proved enough to settle the tie.

Our model had called a 2-1 Liverpool win as its pre-match prediction, which is exactly how it played out. That said, at 52% win probability for Liverpool, this was a lean rather than a strong favourite call — Atletico's away record was patchy but their overall form was solid, and the model flagged a genuine three-way contest with a draw at 25% and an Atletico upset at 23%. Before kickoff, the underlying factors pointed to a tighter match than Liverpool's league position might suggest: their recent form had been mixed, especially at home, while Atletico's knockout pedigree in Europe meant they'd be dangerous despite their travel struggles. The match unfolded largely as expected — a high-intensity European tie with both teams finding the net and Liverpool's home advantage ultimately making the difference.