Middlesbrough took control at the Riverside and came away with a convincing 3-1 win over West Brom, turning the second half into a one-sided affair after a tighter opening 45 minutes. Will Lankshear opened the scoring in the 48th minute, then doubled his tally in the 73rd to put the hosts firmly in the driving seat. West Brom pulled one back through J. Morgan, assisted by Isaac Price, in the 65th minute, but it proved only a consolation. Alfie Jones sealed it in the 87th with an assist from Luke Ayling, sending the home crowd away satisfied.

Our model leaned toward a 2-1 Middlesbrough win with a 49% probability on the result — enough to back the direction but far from a confident call in a match where West Brom's remarkable recent form and title-race motivation suggested a genuine contest. The visitors did trouble things early on, but Middlesbrough's dominance at home and their pattern in recent head-to-head meetings proved the stronger thread. Where we got it wrong was on the scoreline itself: an extra Boro goal meant the actual margin was more decisive than the 2-1 we'd pencilled in. The bones of the prediction held up, but the execution tilted more firmly in Middlesbrough's favor than expected. It's a reminder that calling the result right doesn't mean calling the detail right — and in football, often the difference between a tight contest and a comfortable win comes down to clinical finishing when chances arrive.