Mirassol vs Remo
📖 The Preview
This is a relegation six-pointer and Mirassol have the home advantage to make it count. They're favourites at 63% and despite a mixed run of form, playing in front of their own fans in a must-win situation should sharpen them up. Remo are actually below them in the table sitting 19th, and with Patrick de Paula, Joao Lucas and Eduardo Melo all sidelined, they're going into this seriously short. Expect a tight, scrappy affair where Mirassol nick two without reply, keeping it clean throughout.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol Win Value | 4/6 1.70 | 55% | 63% | +8% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.58 | 26% | 17% | -9% |
| Remo Win | 4/1 5.00 | 19% | 20% | +1% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Mirassol in relegation danger (P18/20)
- 🆘 Remo in relegation danger (P19/20)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Mirassol 5-game home unbeaten run (WWWDW); Remo away form LWW but prior two wins came with fresher legs
H2H: 2 meetings average 4 goals/game but Remo had home advantage in both; Mirassol yet to beat Remo in H2H
Stakes: Both in relegation battle (P18 vs P19) — Mirassol home advantage makes this a must-win for them in front of their fans
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Both previous meetings were played at Remo's ground (3-1 and 2-2), averaging 4 goals per game. With the roles reversed and Remo heavily fatigued and injury-hit, a neutral H2H pattern shifts in Mirassol's favour on home soil.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.