📊 Recent Form
New York Red Bulls
Inter Miami
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Inter Miami at 55%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 21% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Inter Miami at 55% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 50% — a gap in our favour of 5 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 4 goals. Comfortably over 2.5 and above the average match — the model expects both defences to give something up.
Confidence is filed as high at 72/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
New York Red Bulls pulled off a result that few saw coming, beating Inter Miami 2-0 in a match that flipped the pre-match script entirely. An own goal from Carlos Henrique Casimiro gave the Red Bulls an early lead in the 7th minute, and Emil Forsberg sealed it late on at 90+1, tapping in from Cameron Harper's assist. It wasn't the high-scoring affair the stats suggested it might be—or the one Inter Miami's recent form seemed to promise.
Our model backed Inter Miami heavily before kickoff, assigning them a 55% win probability and predicting a 1-3 scoreline. That lean made sense on paper: Inter Miami were in fine shape coming in, while the Red Bulls had shown mixed form and a dodgy home record. The head-to-head record pointed toward goals galore too. What actually unfolded told a different story. The Red Bulls were sharper when it mattered, converted their chances, and left Inter Miami without an answer. Our prediction missed the direction of the result, plain and simple—we just didn't see this one coming.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls Win | 5/2 3.40 | 28% | 24% | -4% |
| Draw | 10/3 4.20 | 22% | 21% | -1% |
| Inter Miami Win Value | 10/11 1.89 | 50% | 55% | +5% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Inter Miami in excellent shape (WWWLDWDDDW), New York Red Bulls inconsistent (LLWLWWLDLD) with poor home record
H2H: High-scoring fixture averaging 4.3 goals/game; Inter Miami dominant in recent meetings with 1-5, 4-1, 6-2 wins
Stakes: Mid-table MLS context but Inter Miami motivated to secure playoff positioning
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-3.
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H heavily favours high-scoring outcomes averaging 4.3 goals per game; Inter Miami have won 4 of last 8, with recent meetings producing scorelines of 1-5, 4-1, and 6-2 in Miami's favour — New York grabbed one big win (4-0) but that was an outlier.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-3 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-3 scoreline totals 4 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
