Newcastle's dominance at St James' Park proved too much for West Ham to handle, with the hosts securing a commanding 3-1 victory that unfolded quickly and decisively. Woltemade's 15th-minute opener, set up by Barnes, gave Newcastle an early foothold, and when Osula doubled the advantage just four minutes later from Ramsey's assist, the contest appeared settled before the half-hour mark. West Ham showed some resilience through Castellanos' 69th-minute strike, but Osula's second goal—arriving in the 65th minute courtesy of Willock—had already put the result beyond doubt. Newcastle's clinical finishing in the opening period proved the decisive factor in what became a comfortable home win.

Our model predicted a 1-1 draw with relatively even win probabilities across the outcomes, and this forecast missed the mark significantly. The prediction underestimated Newcastle's intensity at home despite flagging their strong xG of 1.96, while it also failed to account for how West Ham's relegation desperation might manifest tactically. We'd correctly identified the potential for goals—our backing of Over 2.5 proved sound, and the historical pattern of open matches between these sides held up—but the distribution of those goals was entirely Newcastle's. The defensive vulnerabilities we noted in Newcastle's recent form proved immaterial at home, where incisive attacking play overwhelmed West Ham's attempts to generate meaningful pressure. A reminder that even with solid underlying data, the margin of Newcastle's superiority on the day simply exceeded what the pre-match numbers suggested.