📊 Recent Form
QPR
Derby
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 43%. QPR edge it at 42% against 29% for the draw and 29% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have QPR at 42% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 53% — a gap against us of 11 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as low at 47/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
QPR demolished Derby 4-1 at home in a display that bore little resemblance to the low-scoring affair our model had predicted. Lloyd opened the scoring in the 18th minute with an assist from Kemper, and Madsen doubled the lead from the penalty spot four minutes later. Vale made it three before half-time, and although Smyth added a fourth in the 68th with Madsen setting him up, Derby grabbed a late consolation through Salvesen deep into stoppage time.
Our pre-match prediction of a 1-0 QPR win got the result direction right—we did back QPR to win—but we were way off on the scale of it. The model assigned just a 42% probability to a QPR victory, so while we leaned their way, this wasn't a confident call. The forecast hinged on low-scoring form, mixed motivation levels, and Championship volatility: QPR mid-table with limited stakes, Derby battling relegation but hampered by injuries and a quick turnaround. Those pre-kickoff factors suggested a tight, cagey game. Instead, QPR came out sharp and clinical, while Derby couldn't cope with the early pressure.
This is exactly the kind of match that reminds you why models aren't crystal balls. We spotted the right winner but completely underestimated QPR's attacking threat on the day. Derby's defensive struggles—flagged beforehand—got exposed ruthlessly, and QPR's clinical finishing made light work of a side in genuine trouble. The scoreline stands as a solid reminder that even when you call the direction right, Championship football will keep you honest on the margins.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QPR Win | 8/11 1.75 | 53% | 42% | -11% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.80 | 25% | 29% | +4% |
| Derby Win Value | 10/3 4.32 | 22% | 29% | +7% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 QPR mid-table (P6) — low motivation
- 🆘 Derby in relegation danger (P23/24)
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Championship history
- ⚠️ Narrow-margin home pick — risk factors detected for QPR, confidence reduced
🔍 Key Stats
Form: QPR averaging 1.28 scored / 1.09 conceded at home with four draws in last five; Derby averaging just 0.96 scored with 1.7 conceded, poor away form
H2H: Last 8 meetings split 4-4, avg 2.3 goals/game, but last two QPR home meetings ended 2-3 and 4-0 — volatile
Stakes: QPR mid-table with low motivation; Derby in relegation danger bringing urgency but hampered by six injuries and 3-day turnaround
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 meetings perfectly split 4-4 with no draws, averaging 2.3 goals per game. However the fixture is volatile — QPR won 4-0 in Feb 2025 then lost 2-3 in Apr 2026. Recent trend shows both teams capable of scoring but tight margins prevail in the most recent results.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.