RB Leipzig swept aside Hamburger SV with a dominant 5-0 display at the Red Bull Arena, turning what looked like a competitive contest into a one-sided affair. Tidiam Gomis opened the scoring inside twenty minutes with a finish from Ezechiel Banzuzi's assist, then Antonio Nusa doubled the lead just before the half-hour mark. The damage really compounded in the second half when Willi Orbán made it three from Nusa's cross on 72 minutes, followed by Christopher Nkunku getting on the scoresheet four minutes later—also from Nusa—before Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz rounded off a ruthless performance with a fifth in the 77th minute.

Our model predicted a 2-1 Leipzig win with a 60% confidence in the home side to take it, so we called the result direction correctly but badly underestimated the margin. Leipzig's home record—six wins in their last eight against HSV with an average of 3.1 goals per game—suggested they were capable of this kind of scoreline, yet we leaned on the middle ground between the various prediction outputs and factored in Leipzig's mid-table position and fatigue concerns. The reality is that HSV couldn't mount anything resembling a threat going forward, their attack too limited to trouble Leipzig's defence, and once the floodgates opened early on, there was only ever going to be one outcome. We missed on the scale of it, but the fundamental lean was sound.