Real Madrid dismantled Rayo Vallecano 4-1 to secure a convincing victory in La Liga. Mbappé opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 14th minute, then turned provider just three minutes later as Fernández Carreras made it 2-0. Bellingham added a third in the 35th minute with help from Vinícius to put the match well beyond reach by half-time. Rayo pulled one back through Camello in the 51st minute, but Real Madrid sealed it late when Mbappé scored again in the 90th minute, assisted by Arda Güler, to wrap up a dominant display.

Our model leaned towards a 2-0 Real Madrid win, assigning that scoreline the strongest individual probability among plausible outcomes. The result direction was spot on—Madrid did win convincingly—but they found the net twice as many times as we'd projected. Pre-kickoff, the underlying metrics favoured Madrid heavily (expected goals ran 2.52 to 0.63), and that dominance played out on the pitch; what we hadn't quite accounted for was the sheer clinical finishing, especially from Mbappé's brace and the supporting cast's ruthlessness once they got in front. Real Madrid controlled the match from start to finish, and while the margin exceeded our forecast, the comfortable nature of the victory felt entirely consistent with the gap in quality on show.