📊 Recent Form
Rosenborg
Ham-Kam
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Rosenborg a 61% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have Rosenborg at 61% where the consensus of 12 bookmakers has 68% — a gap against us of 7 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 54/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Rosenborg swept Ham-Kam aside with a commanding 4-0 victory that went well beyond what our pre-match model had lined up. Emil Konradsen Ceide struck early to put the hosts ahead inside the first minute, then after a quiet spell, Rosenborg turned the screw in the second half. Noah Sahsah made it two on 52 minutes, before Amin Chiakha added a pair in quick succession—first on 59, then again on 76—to seal a one-sided afternoon.
Our model had predicted a 2-0 scoreline, which got the result direction spot-on but badly underestimated Rosenborg's dominance. We'd assigned a 61% win probability to the hosts, leaning on their strong home form and Ham-Kam's low motivation as a mid-table side with little left to play for. The expectation was a controlled, efficient performance—which Rosenborg delivered, just with considerably more firepower than anticipated. Where we'd flagged the contest as a likely clean sheet with under 2.5 goals in the mix, Rosenborg simply overwhelmed their visitors and kept adding to the tally throughout the second half.
The gap between prediction and reality here comes down to underestimating just how thoroughly the home side could execute once they got their noses in front. Our model weighted Rosenborg's home advantage and form fairly, but the sheer clinical finishing on the day—particularly from Chiakha down the stretch—went beyond the baseline expectation. Ham-Kam offered nothing on the road, and Rosenborg made them pay repeatedly. It's a clean miss on the scoreline, though the broader call that the hosts would win comfortably held up fine.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenborg Win | 4/11 1.36 | 68% | 61% | -7% |
| Draw Value | 4/1 5.00 | 19% | 25% | +6% |
| Ham-Kam Win | 6/1 7.35 | 13% | 14% | +1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Ham-Kam mid-table (P10) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Rosenborg averaging 2.44 goals scored at home with WWLWW run; Ham-Kam averaging only 1.2 goals scored with poor away form LWLLDWD
H2H: Rosenborg dominant at home in H2H (5 wins in last 8), avg 2.6 goals/game, last home meeting ended 2-0 to Rosenborg
Stakes: Ham-Kam are P10 with low motivation (dead rubber), Rosenborg have normal motivation but strong home advantage
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Rosenborg have won 5 of last 8 H2H meetings with home dominance clear — last two meetings at Rosenborg's ground ended 2-0 and 1-0, suggesting tight but controlled home wins are the pattern.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
