📊 Recent Form
San Jose Earthquakes
Portland Timbers
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 45%. San Jose Earthquakes edge it at 44% against 29% for the draw and 27% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 8 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 58/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
San Jose came out of the blocks firing and never let Portland back into it. Judd opened the scoring inside four minutes with a finish set up by Löwen, then Löwen got his own goal in the 24th minute from a Leroux assist to make it two. Judd bagged his second shortly after in the 29th to put the game beyond reach at 3-0. Portland grabbed a consolation through Da Costa in the 86th, but by then the damage was done. Final score: 3-1 to San Jose.
Our model predicted a 2-1 win for the Earthquakes with a 44% probability on that specific scoreline—a lean rather than a standout conviction, given the spread of possible outcomes. The result direction came good, but we called the exact score wrong; San Jose were more clinical than our forecast suggested. The pre-match setup pointed toward a game shaped by San Jose's European qualification push against a Portland side with little to play for, and that dynamic played out broadly as expected. The underlying form—San Jose's home strength and Portland's away struggles—gave us enough confidence to back the Earthquakes, but we underestimated how thoroughly they'd dominate the evening. Three goals instead of two meant the game got away from Portland faster than the model had weighted.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes Win | 1/1 2.00 | 46% | 44% | -2% |
| Draw Value | 3/1 3.90 | 24% | 29% | +5% |
| Portland Timbers Win | 9/4 3.18 | 30% | 27% | -3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🇪🇺 San Jose Earthquakes in European race (P5)
- 😴 Portland Timbers mid-table (P9) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: San Jose 1.85 xG at home, recent scores include 3-2 and 1-0 wins; Portland away form reads LDLL with 1.41 xG allowed
H2H: Last 8 meetings average 3.6 goals, San Jose won 4, last two home fixtures ended 3-2 and 4-1 in San Jose's favour
Stakes: San Jose chasing European qualification (P5) provides clear motivation boost; Portland mid-table (P9) with nothing meaningful at stake
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Strong H2H pattern favouring San Jose at home — last two home meetings produced 3-2 and 4-1 wins; fixture consistently delivers 3+ goals with both teams finding the net.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
